Forward gas and power continue to fall, suppliers ask for rehearing of NY PSC Reset Order

Forward gas and power prices tumble with strong gas storage numbers. NY PSC’s Reset Order for ESCO participation causes complaints from RESA and suppliers, headroom is available in OH, and NJ passes EV adoption bill.


Natural Gas

  • The February 2020 NYMEX Henry Hub forward contract decreased to $2.120/MMBtu, a $0.02 (-1.0%) decrease from the previous Wednesday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging February 2020 through January 2021 futures contracts decreased $0.03 (-1.3%) to $2.290/MMBtu.

  • For the week ending January 10, the EIA reported net withdrawals from storage of 109 Bcf, which is higher than last year’s net withdrawals of 82 Bcf for this week and lower than the 5-year (2014–18) average net withdrawals of 184 Bcf.

  • Working natural gas in storage totaled 3,039 Bcf, which is 494 Bcf (19.4%) higher than last year’s working gas totals of 2,545 Bcf at the same time and 149 Bcf (5.2%) higher than the 5-year (2014-2018) average of 2,890 Bcf. Total working gas is within the five-year historical range.


Power

  • The NYISO Zone J On-Peak 12 month forward electricity strip is down 6.3% week over week and down 10.7% in the last month.

  • For those looking to hedge their NYISO Zone J On-Peak load, we see value in hedging the March 2020 through February 2021 periods. Contact TrueLight to stay on top of value in current forward curve pricing and learn more about our portfolio management execution expertise.


Utility Highlight

  • Our models indicate there is headroom starting February 1, 2020 for 3, 6, 12 and 36 month contracts for Ohio Power Company (OPC) General Service, Non-Demand Metered (GS1) customers.

  • PECO filed proposed default service Generation Supply Adjustment (GSA) rates effective March 1, 2020 through May 31, 2020. Although not equivalent to the price to compare (PTC), the GSA makes up most of the PTC, which also includes yet-to-be posted transmission charges. The proposed GSA for residential customers under rate class R and RH is 5.972 cents/kWh, a 2.3% decrease from the current rate of 6.114 cents/kWh. The GSA for Small commercial customers at or under 100 kW served under the General Service (GS) rate class will be 5.453 cents/kWh, a 6.9% decrease from the current rate of 5.856 cents/kWh. Let TrueLight help you stay on top of current rates and subscribe to our PTC tracking and headroom reporting or use our price verification service to ensure you stay on top of all utility rate changes.

Clean Energy

  • New Jersey took steps to promote electric vehicle adoptions and infrastructure build out with the New Jersey Assembly and Senate approving S2252/A4819, a bill that sets goals for EV adoption and provides rebates to customers who purchase EVs. The legislation sets aside $300 million worth of tax rebates over a ten year period for customers who buy electric vehicles, and the incentive can be worth up to $5,000 for customers that buy an EV. Expected to be signed by Governor Phil Murphy soon, the legislation attempts to develop charging infrastructure by requiring 1,400 new chargers by the end of 2025, including 400 DC fast chargers. The bill also requires New Jersey Transit to buy only zero emission buses by 2032. Contact us for advice on renewable generation project development.

Market Intelligence

  • The New York Public Service Commission’s (PSC) Second Reset Order has generated some resistance among energy service companies (ESCOs), as several suppliers and retail supplier organizations sought a rehearing or reconsideration of the decision last Tuesday. As previously mentioned in a TrueMarket Update last month, the Reset Order establishes a series of limitations on ESCO products and marketing practices, including restrictions on rate offerings, a ban on bundling of non-energy services, and requirements to publish comparisons of supplier rates versus utility default rates. The Retail Energy Supply Association (RESA) suggested that the provision requiring suppliers to guarantee savings for variable rates against a trailing 12 month average utility default service rate is unreasonable and will cause many customers to be dropped to default utility service. Among other objections the joint petitioners claimed that sections of the new order are confusing, requesting clarification on the requirements that ESCOs re-apply for supplier eligibility and that suppliers obtain affirmative consent before renewing variable rate contracts that comply with the order’s new rules. Contact TrueLight Support for analysis of the most up-to-date energy market news or use our price verification service to ensure the most recent market shifts are reflected in your price quotes.

Weather

  • The 8-14 day forecast beginning January 28 shows warmth coming to most areas of the continental U.S., with the exception of the Southwest seeing below average temperatures. Above average precipitation is forecast for most of the country, with the highest chances for wetter than average conditions predicted for Texas and the Plains.

© 2019 by TRUELight Energy LLC

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