ERCOT power prices decrease; severe weather to continue in central & eastern US

Updated: Jun 14, 2019

ERCOT power prices experience decreases. Severe weather expected to continue through the week for central and eastern US. Several new retail supplier licenses granted by the Pennsylvania PUC.


General Update

  • The May 2019 NYMEX contract increased $0.02 (0.9%) to $2.700/MMBtu last Wednesday. The 12-month strip price averaging May 2019 through April 2020 futures contracts rose $0.03/MMBtu (1%) to $2.876/MMBtu.

  • Northeast prices haven’t moved much. Boston’s Algonquin Citygate prices increased $0.02 (0.7%) to $2.72/MMBtu last Wednesday. Transco Zone 6 NYC prices decreased $0.06 (-2.3%) to $2.55/MMBtu.

  • Pennsylvania’s Dominion South fell $0.02 (-0.8%) to $2.44/MMBtu. Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus spot prices fell $0.06 (-2.5%) to $2.39/MMBtu.

  • Temperatures have been warmer in Southern California, and SoCal Citygate prices fell $1.17 (-30%) from $3.91/MMBtu the previous Wednesday to a weekly low of $2.74/MMBtu. Prices at Northern California PG&E Citygate decreased $0.40 (10.8%) from $3.71/MMBtu the previous Wednesday to $3.31/MMBtu last Wednesday.

Power

  • For the NEMASSBOST zone in ISONE, the 12 Month ATC strip rose $0.07 (0.2%) to $45.93. The 24 Month ATC strip rose $0.13 (0.3%) to $45.76, and the Cal 2020 ATC strip increased $0.19 (0.4%) to $45.54/MWh yesterday.

  • For the NYC zone in NYISO, the 12 Month ATC strip decreased $0.14 (-0.3%) to $42.26. The 24 Month ATC strip increased $0.09 (0.2%) to $42.99 and the Cal 2020 ATC strip increased $0.30 (0.7%) to $42.54/MWh yesterday.

  • For the PEPCO zone in PJM, the 12 Month ATC strip decreased $0.36 (-0.9%) to $38.04. The 24 Month ATC strip decreased $0.15 (-0.4%) to $37.61 and the Cal 2020 ATC strip increased $0.06 (0.2%) to $37.59/MWh yesterday.

  • For the Houston zone in ERCOT, the 12 Month ATC strip decreased $1.59 (-3.7%) to $41.61. The 24 Month ATC strip dropped $0.97 (-2.4%) to $40.23, and the Cal 2020 ATC strip decreased $0.65 (-1.6%) to $39.11/MWh yesterday.

Utility Highlight

  • The Price to Compare (PTC) for Southern Massachusetts Eversource (CECO) Residential Service rate class (R1) for the January 1, 2019 to June 30, 2019 price period is $0.13588/kWh, which is 19.2% higher than the previous price period’s PTC of $0.11397/kWh.

  • TRUELight’s expert pricing models indicate that headroom is likely for the 3, 6, 9 and 12 month terms. Headroom of $0.01390/kWh and $0.01020/kWh is expected for the 9 and 12 month terms, respectively. Please contact TRUELight should you need more detailed information about current default rates and headroom, or would like to receive our forecast for future default rates and headroom by market.

  • Over the last week, the SEMASS ATC 12-Month Strip traded $0.07/MWh higher, a gain of just 0.1%, to finish the week at $45.72/MWh.

  • Since the beginning of the year, the strip has traded between $41.83/MWh and $48.24/MWh. This time last year, the strip traded at $43.40/MWh, which is 5% lower than this year.

Natural Gas

  • For the week ending April 5, the EIA reported net injections from storage of 25 Bcf, which is higher than last year’s net injections of 20 Bcf for this week and the 5-year (2014–18) average net injections of 5 Bcf.

  • Working natural gas in storage totaled 1,155 Bcf, which is 183 Bcf (-13.7%) lower than last year’s level and 485 Bcf (-29.6%) lower than the five-year average of 1,640 Bcf. Total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Supply & Demand

  • Average total supply of natural gas fell by 1% compared with the previous report week, averaging 93.5 Bcf/day. Dry natural gas fell by 1% week over week while net imports from Canada decreased by 1%.

  • Total US consumption of natural gas fell by 10%. Consumption for power generation grew by 4%, industrial sector consumption dropped by 5%, residential-commercial consumption dropped by 25%, and exports to Mexico decreased by 1%.

  • US LNG exports decreased week/week, with five vessels departing US ports for a combined 17.8 Bcf.

Market Intelligence

  • The Pennsylvania PUC has granted several new supplier licenses. Infinite Energy, Inc. has just been granted a natural gas supplier license to serve small commercial (<6,000 MCF annually), large commercial (>6,000 MCF annually), and industrial customers. East Coast Power & Gas has received an electric supplier license to serve all customer classes in all service areas. The Pennsylvania PUC also granted East Coast Power & Gas of New Jersey, LLC a natural gas supplier license to serve all customer classes in designated natural gas distribution company service territories. South Bay Energy has received an electric supplier license to serve residential, small commercial (25 kW and under demand), large commercial (over 25 kW), industrial, and governmental customers in all service areas. South Bay Energy Corp. also received a natural gas supplier license to serve residential, small commercial (under 6,000 MCF annually), large commercial (6,000 MCF or more annually), industrial, and governmental customers in designated natural gas distribution company service territories.

Weather

  • Following this past weekend’s severe and deadly weather, the central and eastern United States will see more damaging thunderstorms and tornados later this week. The severe weather outbreak is expected from the middle of the week until the end of the week, beginning in the Plains on Wednesday making its way to the Atlantic coast by Friday. Some of the same parts of the South will be at risk again. The storm in question will start in the West with rain and mountain snow. As it moves east, there is potential for hail, flooding, tornados and thunderstorms. Easter weekend travel could likely be disrupted up and down the east coast.


© 2019 by TRUELight Energy LLC

  • LinkedIn Social Icon
  • Twitter Social Icon