Power prices experience gains across the board while natural gas prices fall overall, with the exception of SoCal prices. Also, what states produced the greatest amount of electricity from wind generation and why?
The July 2019 contract fell to $2.378/MMBtu last Wednesday, down $0.25 (-9.5%) from the previous Wednesday. The 12-month strip price averaging July 2019 through June 2020 futures contracts decreased $0.16 (-5.9%) to $2.552/MMBtu.
Northeast prices trended downwards. Boston’s Algonquin Citygate prices fell $0.02 (-0.8%) from $2.32/MMBtu to $2.30/MMBtu last Wednesday. Transco Zone 6 NYC prices decreased $0.09 (-3.7%) to a weekly high of $2.24/MMBtu.
Pennsylvania’s Dominion South decreased $0.13 (-5.9%) to $2.08/MMBtu. Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus spot prices fell $0.17 (-7.8%) to $2.02/MMBtu.
California prices were mixed. SoCal Citygate prices jumped $0.55 (22%) to a high of $3.05/MMBtu last Wednesday due to below normal temperatures and supply constraints. Prices at Northern California PG&E Citygate tumbled $0.45 (-13.8%) to $2.81/MMBtu.
For the NEMASSBOST zone in ISONE, the 12 Month ATC strip increased $0.39 (0.9%) to $41.58. The 24 Month ATC strip increased $0.30 (0.7%) to $42.17, and the Cal 2020 ATC strip increased $0.41 (1.0%) to $42.70/MWh yesterday.
For the NYC zone in NYISO, the 12 Month ATC strip increased $0.47 (1.2%) to $38.96. The 24 Month ATC strip increased $0.37 (0.9%) to $39.58, and the Cal 2020 ATC strip increased $0.30 (0.8%) to $39.61/MWh yesterday.
For the PEPCO zone in PJM, the 12 Month ATC strip increased $0.27 (0.8%) to $35.05. The 24 Month ATC strip increased $0.17 (0.5%) to $34.81 and the Cal 2020 ATC strip increased $0.18 (0.5%) to $34.82/MWh yesterday.
For the Houston zone in ERCOT, the 12 Month ATC strip increased $0.31 (0.9%) to $36.27. The 24 Month ATC strip increased $0.20 (0.5%) to $37.08 and the Cal 2020 ATC strip increased $0.09 (0.2%) to $37.70/MWh yesterday.
The current Price to Compare for New Hampshire’s PSNH (Eversource) Residential rate class (R) is $0.09985/kWh, in effect from February 1, 2019 to July 31, 2019. This rate is a 6% increase from the previous rate of $0.09412/kWh for the August 1, 2018 to January 31, 2019 price period.
TRUELight’s expert analytics and proprietary models indicate that headroom in PSNH is available in the 1, 3 and 6 month terms. Headroom of $0.01375/kWh and $0.00634/kWh is likely for the 3 and 6 month terms, respectively. Please contact TRUELight should you need more detailed information about current default rates and headroom, or would like to receive our forecast for future default rates and headroom by market.
Over the last week, the New Hampshire ATC 12-month strip decreased slightly, falling 0.24% to finish at $41.17/MWh yesterday.
Since the beginning of the year, the ATC strip has reached a high of $47.91/MWh on January 17, 2019 and a new low of $40.78/MWh this past Tuesday. The strip has been on a steady decline since the end of May.
For the week ending May 31, the EIA reported net injections from storage of 119 Bcf, which is higher than last year’s net injections of 93 Bcf for this week and higher than the 5-year (2014–18) average net injections of 102 Bcf.
Working natural gas in storage totaled 1,986 Bcf, which is 182 Bcf (10%) higher than last year’s level and 240 Bcf (-10.7%) lower than the five-year average of 2,226 Bcf. Total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
Supply & Demand
Average total supply of natural gas did not change week/week, averaging 94.2 Bcf/day. Dry natural gas production decreased 1%, while net imports with Canada increased 8%.
Total US consumption of natural gas increased 4%. Consumption for power generation was up 10% week/week, industrial sector consumption gained 2%, residential-commercial consumption decreased 11%, and exports to Mexico increased 1%.
US LNG exports decreased week/week, with eight vessels departing US ports for a combined 33.4 Bcf.
More than half of the 275 million megawatt hours (MWh) of electricity sourced from wind power in the US in 2018 has been produced by just four states: Texas, Oklahoma, Iowa, and Kansas. California, Illinois, Minnesota, North Dakota, and Colorado accounted for another 20% of total wind generation. The number one state on the list though is Texas, which has contributed over 25% of electricity from wind every year for the past 3 years. A combination of advanced wind resources, reasonable wind farm construction costs, and either mandatory renewable portfolio standards (RPS) targets or voluntary goals have allowed these top states to excel in the clean energy economy.
In Nevada, a bill has been approved by both houses to impose new requirements on electric customers receiving competitive supply. The bill requires that utilities cap the amount of energy and capacity available to eligible competitive supply customers in order to ensure electric service reliability and rate stability. Among other things, the bill also subjects competitive suppliers to a licensing requirement as well as various assessments currently funded by the utilities.
Unseasonably cooler temperatures persist over the majority of the northeastern US and extend west into the Plains. More normal temperatures are found in the mid-Atlantic with southeastern coastal regions likely seeing some warmer than normal temperatures. Precipitation risks across these regions are weighted to the upside.
In Texas, above normal temperatures are forecast for the 8-14 day period, with coastal load centers seeing a higher degree of probability for this heat. This is accompanied by drier weather, with below normal precipitation across most of the state allowing greater upside in energy demand.